Red Waves, Red Puddles, and Political Spin
Good Morning friends,
A lot of confused and mixed reactions around the internet this morning, as people try and make heads or tails of the midterm elections.
Some are saying it was more of a red trickle than a red wave.
Others say it was pretty wavy, but just not a Trump-supporting one.
Most folks at home should probably remind themselves that almost everyone expressing an opinion on the matter has an axe to grind and a position to stake out.
So— knowing that, one has to reckon that as matters lie this morning, it was a pretty decent night for conservatives, but not as good of one as the polling seemed to be predicting.
Even yours truly, after several newsletters making mention of how modern polling is garbage was starting to buy in to this tsunami talk.
Ugh.
By now, folks can look at the paper or their phones and see most of the highlights— so don’t expect a terribly detailed breakdown of things from us. We’re much too shallow for that. We’re even going to mostly blow off the State Attorney General’s race, where Ken Paxton cruised to an easy win. Not much to say there.
Here’s what did jump out at us though:
Beto vs Abbott:
Beto O’Rourke seemed to indicate this may’ve been his last run, after losing to Greg Abbott. One finds it doubtful that we’ll never hear from him again, however. The man probably should focus on a place in government that is within his grasp, and then execute the hell out of that job. To put it another way— he needs to demonstrate he’s capable of actually doing something, before trying to run for high office. It’s not enough to raise money, though it helps. The man’s basically had a forgettable low-accomplishment turn as a Rep, and three losing runs for higher office. There’s no record of governing and barely any record of representation there. He’s not going to change any minds without having some kind of a real record to point to.
Even the Texas Tribune seems to be questioning the political future for El Paso’s current favorite son.
There was of course no shortage of conservative Texans doing the equivalent of end zone celebrations, reveling in O’Rourke’s loss. We could show you a few of the tweets and other statements but… well… this is a family newsletter, mostly. Suffice to say the most charitable of them went something like this:
Here’s what Greg Abbott had to say at the conclusion of things:
One of the sadder elements of this election’s aftermath has been the reaction we’re seeing online from Uvalde residents who lost family in the Robb Elementary School shooting.
Some of them have internalized a belief that a vote for Greg Abbott is a vote against them and their pain. Makes it awkward to note that apparently, Uvalde County voted for Greg Abbott in a big way.
Tony Plohetski is one of the more senior reporters at the Austin American Statesman. Maybe the most senior. He was probably in a hurry and meant to type “22 percentage points” instead of just percent. A 60 to 38 difference is much bigger than 22%. 60-30 would be something like a 50% difference.
Other races around the State didn’t break according to what seemed like the conventional wisdom about red waves.
2-Thirds of the MAGA Latinas down in South Texas lost their races. Many Republicans seemed truly invested in believing they’d be able to make a huge inroad down there, and many seemed disappointed last night. Honestly though, it always seemed like a huge ask to think they might sweep all three.
Just getting one to flip was a big win for conservatives, in our opinion.
Monica De La Cruz (R) defeated Michelle Vallejo (D), 53 to 44.
Vicente Gonzalez (D) defeated Mayra Flores (R), 53 to 43.
And Henry Cuellar (D) defeated Cassy Garcia (R) 55 to 44
There’s a lot to note in these three races. Right off the top, Vicente Gonzalez was actually technically the incumbent in the District 15 race between De La Cruz and Vallejo. He bailed out to run against Mayra Flores, after 15 was was redrawn in Austin, presumably to favor Republicans. Democrat activists in 15 are blaming him and the national party for deserting them and somehow “letting” De La Cruz flip it.
It could perhaps be argued that Gonzalez and his instincts as a careerist may have been spot on.
As for the third race, it seemed to us that expecting San Antonio Democrats to stay home and Republicans to make up the difference was always going to be a big ask in the Henry Cuellar race. One thing we’ve been telling anyone who would listen, is that Laredo/Webb County voters know well the benefits of seniority in politics. They were always going to turn out in relatively big numbers for a longtime incumbent.
Many Republicans who we would assume have a better head for politics than we do seemed to be deep in the tank for Cassy Garcia— believing perhaps in her pedigree as a former staffer for Ted Cruz. Between that and the polling, it seems they had their hopes up. In the end however, age and treachery seem to always have their say, and so it was in South Texas, with Gonzalez and Cuellar representing the older and more experienced end of things. Heck— De La Cruz also seemed to have an edge in age and experience over Vallejo.
In other area races Eagle Pass’s Eddie Morales appeared to cruise to a win against Alpine’s Katherine Parker.
Morales is pretty familiar with Kinney County— having spent a fair amount of time in the past as a legal advisor to the City of Brackettville.
And, San Antonio’s Tony Gonzales stood off Democrat John Lira and an independent Conservative challenge from Del Rio’s Frank Lopez.
What about Arizona?
Well, that’s some wild business. The two highest profile MAGA candidates, Kari Lake and Blake Masters were still in the running overnight, refusing to concede. Lake is running for Governor against Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Blake Masters is running for Senate against Mark Kelly. Both Lake and Masters were dragging down some very lopsided counts in vote drops coming in late from Election Day. Some drops were weighted in Lake and Master’s favors by as much as 80% or more.
It’s too soon to tell if that’ll be enough. Election officials at one point were saying they may be counting until Friday.
Weird.
We could try and say something about Pennsylvania, but we really have nothing too witty or wise on the subject. Too far away, not familiar enough to us, and frankly neither Fetterman or Oz never seemed like much of a choice.
As for Kinney County, we haven’t cruised by the Courthouse yet to eyeball the numbers— but our understanding is that the major statewide and national races all skewed conservative and, we don’t find it terribly likely that the local races hold much interest beyond the county’s borders.
So, let’s just say that all the local candidates we know and like seemed to run some good hard races and do their best. And we hope they will all walk tall with their heads high, win or lose.
That’ll do it for now— though we should mention one last race we had our eye on— Austin Mayor.
It’s irrelevant to the newsletter and our fellow citizens here in Kinney County, perhaps, but it’s headed to a runoff between Kirk Watson and a lady named Celia Israel, both Democrats, running to replace Steve Adler. Adler’s widely regarded as a progressive, though he came in for a pile of criticism during Covid, flying his private plane to Cabo San Lucas, while urging Austinites to stay home and hunker down.
Watson’s been a figure in Austin-area politics for many years, Ms. Israel is less well-known to us, though she’s also experienced as a State Rep. Watson was previously Mayor of Austin in 1997 through 2001, and has time in the State Senate. He ran unsuccessfully for State Attorney General against Ken Paxton in 2002.
The conventional wisdom would suggest that Watson has the advantage— but it’s actually Israel that had the most votes, just not enough to get to 50%. She and Watson split votes with about 50 other candidates (joking), one of which gathered up 18%
The two square off again in December.
Our recollection of Watson was of a solid-enough Texas Democrat. Nothing too wild or progressive for the time, though in these days he may seem too conservative for most Austin voters.
That does it for now— we’ll see you again soon.
As always this newsletter is an independent work product, created privately without the input of any Kinney County Officials, and should not be mistaken for any kind of a statement on their behalf.
Have a great day, everyone.
I was not optimistic about the midterm. Now, I'm not optimistic about the future. Nuff said, I suppose.